Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis
Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis, an interactive resource from The Pew Charitable Trusts, allows you to sort and analyze data on key fiscal, economic, and demographic trends in the 50 states and understand their impact on states’ fiscal health. Read the key findings below.
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Revenue
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Spending
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Economy and People
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Long-Term costs
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Fiscal policy
Insights From Fiscal 50’s Key Measures of State Fiscal Health
March 9, 2023
States’ Fiscal Conditions Strengthen While Uncertainty Mounts
After an initial jolt to state finances, stronger-than-expected tax revenue growth and unprecedented federal aid have lifted states’ outlooks. Many economists had predicted a dark chapter for state budgets when the coronavirus pandemic triggered a historic contraction in the U.S. economy in early 2020, abruptly ending the longest U.S. economic expansion on record. But the recession proved to be the shortest on record and most states now enjoy surprisingly strong fiscal conditions, though slowing revenue gains associated with moderating economic growth and tax cuts enacted in 2021 and 2022, spending pressure from still-elevated inflation rates, and a tapering of federal pandemic aid pose mounting threats.
A hallmark of the COVID-19 economy has been its divergent effect on state tax revenue. From the start of the pandemic through the first quarter of 2022, cumulative tax revenue nationally and in most states was higher than it would have been if pre-pandemic growth trends had continued. Still, total receipts underperformed pre-COVID-19 growth trends in slightly more than a third of states, and experts expect collections to temper substantially in fiscal year 2023.
Robust federal aid has played a central role in supporting the economy and state finances. Federal assistance for taxpayers, businesses, and state and local governments—along with higher-than-expected tax collections—helped alleviate stress on budgets and allowed the majority of states to avoid tapping their rainy day funds. In fact, after dipping briefly in fiscal year 2020, the total amount set aside in rainy day funds nationwide grew to a new high by the end of fiscal 2021.
States’ economies have generally experienced steady growth in recent years despite the pandemic’s disruption. The national rate of prime-age adults with a job almost fully rebounded to pre-pandemic levels during the 12-month period ending in June that corresponds with most states’ fiscal year 2022. Every state recorded an annual increase last year in total personal income from all sources, another key economic indicator. Earnings from work, which experienced the sharpest growth in over two decades, drove much of the gains. Pandemic-related government assistance to individuals and businesses also contributed, although much of the aid has since subsided.
- Tax revenue. From January 2020 through the end of most states’ 2022 budget year, tax revenue outperformed its pre-pandemic growth trajectory in a record 32 states. Still, annual revenue growth rates slowed substantially during fiscal year 2022 and are on track for negative growth by the end of the current budget year amid looming economic uncertainties.
- Reserves and balances. States’ total financial cushion reached all-time highs at the start of the current budget year, building on record gains the year before. Since the start of the pandemic, higher-than-forecasted revenue and historic levels of federal COVID-19 aid helped spur widespread growth in states’ rainy day funds and end-of-year balances. As states approach the close of fiscal year 2023, most anticipate continued savings growth but at a slower clip amid mounting fiscal and economic threats.
- State personal income. Every state experienced personal income growth in 2021 as the economy continued to rebound from severe losses earlier in the pandemic. Earnings from work drove much of the gains, recording the steepest annual rate increase in over two decades. Federal aid and other public assistance further contributed to the growth, climbing from 2020’s elevated levels. Total growth ranged from more than 5% in Idaho and South Dakota to nearly zero in Vermont, after accounting for inflation.
- Employment-to-population ratio. Americans of prime working age increasingly held jobs in fiscal year 2022, as businesses seeking to bounce back from losses earlier in the pandemic hired more workers. In the majority of states, however, the share of 25-to-54-year-olds who were employed on average over the 12-month period ending in June was still lower when compared to pre-pandemic levels. Growth may have stalled more recently as the national prime-age employment rate has remained relatively flat since March.
Long-running challenges complicate recovery
The coronavirus pandemic intensified two challenges already facing states: It put pressure on Medicaid, the health care program that is most states’ second-biggest budget expense, and introduced a novel source of volatility that triggered unexpected swings in tax revenue, complicating revenue forecasting and budgeting.
Meanwhile, states continued to face fiscal pressures from inherited shortfalls in funding for public employees’ pension and retiree health care benefits; recurring deficits between annual state revenue and expenses; and weak population growth, which can diminish economic prospects and revenue collections.
One lifeline for states continued to be federal dollars, which made up roughly one-third of all state revenue before the latest economic shock led to a boost in federal aid to states.
- State Medicaid spending. Medicaid consumed a greater portion of states’ own money in nearly every state between fiscal 2000 and 2017. States’ increases varied widely, however, from less than 1 cent to nearly 12 cents more per dollar of state-generated revenue, exerting different degrees of budget pressure. Medicaid’s claim on state revenue surged in the wake of the Great Recession, after temporary federal economic stimulus dollars expired but before the federally funded expansion of Medicaid eligibility began, and has remained stable since. Medicaid is most state governments’ second-biggest expense, after K-12 education.
- Tax revenue volatility. After years of relative stability, the long-term volatility of state tax revenue trends increased to a record high by the end of fiscal 2021 as multiple temporary factors fueled an unexpected surge in collections. Unforeseen swings in tax dollars present challenges to policymakers even under less extreme economic conditions, with some states more prone to volatility than others. During the 20 years ending in fiscal 2021, Alaska recorded the most volatility and South Dakota the least, after removing the effects of state tax policy changes.
- Debt and unfunded retirement costs. Unfunded pension obligations are most states’ largest long-term liabilities and have consistently outranked debt and retiree health care as a challenge for states’ budgets. According to the most recent available data, states collectively reported $1.25 trillion in unfunded pension benefits in fiscal year 2019, the equivalent of 6.8% of total personal income. Unfunded retiree health care promises stood at 4% of all states’ personal income in 2016, and debt claimed 2.7% of total personal income in 2020. If not properly managed, these liabilities can limit future budget flexibility and raise borrowing costs.
- Fiscal balance. As the coronavirus pandemic triggered substantial volatility in states’ balance sheets in fiscal 2020, 20 states recorded annual shortfalls—the most since the Great Recession and four times more than in the prior year. States can withstand periodic deficits, but long-running imbalances—such as those carried by New Jersey, Illinois, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, Kentucky, New York, and Delaware—can create an unsustainable fiscal situation, pushing off some past costs for operating government and providing services onto future taxpayers.
- Population change. Population growth over the 2010 to 2020 decade slowed nationally to a rate not seen since the Great Depression, although only three states—Illinois, Mississippi, and West Virginia—lost residents. COVID-19 depressed growth in 2021, and although the pace of population growth picked up between July 2021 and July 2022, it remained slower than it was over the preceding decade. The Midwest and Northeast grew at the slowest pace over the 2010s and actually recorded population declines in 2022, as people continued moving South and West. Population trends are tied to states’ economies and government finances and are therefore useful for understanding both.
- Federal share of state revenue. The share of states’ total revenue made up of federal dollars reached a record high nationally—and in most states—during fiscal year 2020. As the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily pummeled some revenue sources, the federal government dispersed billions of dollars to help states stabilize their budgets and respond to the pandemic. Despite a swifter-than-expected state tax revenue recovery, the share of federal funds is expected to remain elevated through fiscal 2024, bolstered by subsequent rounds of federal aid.
Pew’s Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis is an interactive tool that allows you to sort and analyze data on key fiscal, economic, and demographic trends in the 50 states and understand their impact on states’ fiscal health. With this tool, you can:
- Compare states over time, with each other, or with national trends.
- Gain insights into each state’s long-term financial well-being.
- Read analysis from Pew experts.
The primary objective of Fiscal 50 is to provide insights into states’ long-term fiscal health on a range of metrics. This tool is not meant to be a comprehensive assessment of a state’s finances or a replica of state budget statistics that are published by a variety of experts. Rather, Fiscal 50 selectively presents data and analyses that help states look beyond their current budgets, size up their progress over time, consider different ways to measure performance, and easily compare their outcomes with neighbors or peers that have similar resources and challenges.
This resource will be updated regularly with more analysis, fresh data, and additional indicators.
How are the indicators chosen?
Fiscal 50 identifies five core areas that are essential to states’ fiscal health: revenue, spending, economy and people, long-term costs, and fiscal policy. Indicators for each of these are selected with states’ long-term financial well-being in mind. Pew solicited advice from outside fiscal experts in choosing them.
Where do the data come from?
Fiscal 50 builds on data from U.S. government agencies, the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, the National Association of State Budget Officers, the National Governors Association, and Pew’s own research. Differences can be expected between certain fiscal data used in this analysis and data compiled and used by states for budgeting purposes. Statistics featured in Fiscal 50 are the best available for drawing fair comparisons across states.
Reserves and Balances
States’ Total Rainy Day Funds Fall for First Time Since Great Recession
The total amount set aside in state rainy day funds fell for the first time since the Great Recession as lawmakers in fiscal year 2020 filled budget gaps driven by the pandemic’s early fiscal and economic fallout. Nearly a third of states reported declines in the total dollar amounts of their savings—the most since 2010. Still, remaining balances hovered near record highs. Read more below.
Days Each State Could Run on Only Rainy Day Funds, FY 2000-20
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50-state median |
Note: The text of this webpage was updated on May 21, 2021 to clarify that Maine’s FY 2020 rainy day fund withdrawal was unrelated to the pandemic.
In the face of steep tax revenue shortfalls and increased spending demands, 15 states tapped a total of $12.4 billion from their rainy day funds in the first budget year disrupted by COVID-19, according to data reported by the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO). Some withdrew only a small share of their savings, but others tapped substantial amounts to plug budget holes that suddenly emerged.
Despite the start of a recession, rainy day funds in the rest of states were unchanged or even grew somewhat in the fiscal year that ended for most states in June 2020. Overall, rainy day funds nationwide were left with $71.6 billion—second only to the pre-pandemic record-setting total of $78.7 billion—to deal with budget shortfalls or other emergencies as the pandemic continued into this fiscal year.
A 50-state comparison, though, shows wide variation in how far each state’s rainy day funds could stretch—from enough to run government operations for almost a year in Wyoming to zero savings in Illinois, Nevada, and New Jersey. The median amount at the start of this fiscal year could cover 28.5 days’ worth of general fund spending, or 7.8%, meaning at least half of states had that much or more saved and half had less.
It is still unclear how much states may draw on their reserves to balance budgets this fiscal year, which ends June 30 in 46 states. Eleven states expected their rainy day fund totals to fall by the close of fiscal 2021, according to NASBO data. But fiscal and economic outlooks have improved considerably since most states’ budget plans were passed last year.
The threat of big year-end budget gaps lessened as the national economy began bouncing back and state tax revenue began recovering. As of February 2021, tax collections in 29 states had grown enough to offset initial losses since the start of the pandemic, though in at least 18 states—often those heavily reliant on tourism or energy production—receipts still were running behind pre-pandemic levels. Although budgets also were stressed by billions of dollars of expenses to fight COVID-19 and repair economic damage, states were poised to receive an unprecedented amount of federal aid that could be used to fill gaps and also fund economic relief and infrastructure projects. A few states that recently withdrew from their rainy day funds were already considering making sizeable deposits in fiscal 2022, including California, Michigan, and Oklahoma.
States were cautious early on about using their rainy day accounts, also known as budget stabilization funds, amid significant uncertainty over how long the public health and economic crises might last and how much federal aid might be forthcoming. Instead of turning first to rainy day funds, many managed fiscal 2020 budget gaps through a combination of spending cuts, federal aid, and a historically high cache of leftover general fund budget dollars, known as ending balances, that had built up over two years of widespread surpluses.
Before the pandemic hit, the combination of states’ ending balances and rainy day funds—what is known as total balances—amounted to a record $121.6 billion, the largest fiscal cushion on record in at least the past 20 years. After dealing with the pandemic’s sudden blows to public health, the economy, and tax collections in the final four months of fiscal 2020, states still held $105.6 billion in total balances heading into the current fiscal year, enough cash reserves to cover a median of 43.5 days’ worth—or 11.9%—of operating costs.
Rainy day funds
Overall, states learned a lesson from the 2007-09 downturn, when tax revenue losses far outstripped savings, and they pumped up the total amount set aside in rainy day funds almost every year over the past decade. When the pandemic hit, they had enough money to cover 28.9 days’ worth of operating costs at the end of fiscal 2019 compared with just 17.3 days in fiscal 2007, on the brink of the Great Recession.
However, some states had far more set aside than others to deal with potential revenue downturns, natural disasters, or other emergencies, such as COVID-19. At least 36 states by the start of fiscal 2020 had saved enough to cover a greater share of government operating costs than in the last full budget year before the previous recession.
Rainy day fund highlights
In fiscal 2020, the first budget year scarred by the pandemic:
- Two states—New Jersey and Nevada—drained their savings, a sharp reversal after each had made recent progress replenishing rainy day funds they had emptied during the previous downturn. New Jersey had just made its first deposit in a decade, and Nevada had surpassed its pre-Great Recession savings level for the first time. The governor of Nevada has proposed a plan to begin refilling its rainy day fund, and New Jersey’s balance is projected to hit $1.4 billion by the end of the current fiscal year.
- The 13 other states that tapped their rainy day funds were: Alaska, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Texas. Declines ranged from 4% of savings in Texas and Georgia to 71% in Oklahoma and 84% in Hawaii. California’s $7.2 billion decline was the largest by dollar amount and accounted for 31% of its savings; however, its governor has proposed a budget that would restore much of these funds in the upcoming budget year. Maine’s withdrawal was unrelated to the pandemic, and the governor’s proposed budget for fiscal 2022 would bolster the fund.
- Connecticut posted the largest gain among 26 states in which rainy day fund savings grew as a share of operating costs, despite the pandemic-induced economic downturn. A $940 million increase—driven by a deposit rule tied to revenue volatility—boosted its savings from 40.4 days’ worth of operating costs in fiscal 2019 to 58.6 days in fiscal 2020.
- Wyoming boasted the nation’s largest rainy day reserves as a share of operating costs in fiscal 2020 (353.8 days). North Dakota (111 days) and Alaska (110.6) were the only states besides Wyoming with more than 100 days’ worth of operating costs stowed away. Alaska, though, has made withdrawals for seven years in a row and was down to one-eighth what it once had as a share of spending.
- Six states had less than a week’s worth of operating costs in reserve in fiscal 2020: Kansas (four days), Pennsylvania (3.6), Hawaii (2.7), and Illinois (less than one-tenth of a day), plus Nevada and New Jersey, each with zero. Kansas, though, made its first deposit of $82 million since creating its rainy day fund in 2016.
- The 11 states that earlier this fiscal year had expected declines in their rainy day funds were: Alaska, California, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas, Vermont, and Wyoming. In addition, Delaware authorized a withdrawal from a new fund that functions as savings but is not reflected in NASBO’s data. States may find less need to tap their savings by the close of fiscal 2021 because both economic and budget conditions have improved considerably.
Total balances
Unlike the Great Recession, rainy day funds made up the bulk of states’ reserves in the year before the pandemic, accounting for 65 cents of every dollar in total balances at the end of fiscal 2019, compared with 45 cents just before the 2007-09 downturn. The contrast highlights the more prominent role of rainy day funds today in managing state fiscal uncertainty. Ending balances, which make up the remainder of total balances, were historically high before both recessions.
At the end of the first budget year of the pandemic, ending balances were down more than rainy day funds. In net dollars, which account for the fact that totals fell in some states while rising in others, ending balances fell by nearly $9 billion to $34 billion in fiscal 2020, while rainy day funds declined by $7 billion to $71.6 billion.
At the close of fiscal 2020, total balances in 31 states could cover fewer days’ worth of general fund spending than a year earlier but 18 states could cover more, with one state unchanged.
Ending balances fluctuate from year to year, so policymakers cannot count on them as cushions against future budget uncertainty to the degree that they can with rainy day funds, which are saved until policymakers decide to draw them down.
Total balance highlights
In fiscal 2020, which for most states included the first five months of the new pandemic-induced recession:
- Of the 31 states whose fiscal cushion shrank from a year earlier, total balances in seven declined by more than 50% in terms of days’ worth of government spending: New Hampshire, Oregon, Illinois, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Pennsylvania.
- The highest-ranked state for total balances was the same as for rainy day funds: Wyoming (353.8 days). Three other states held more than 100 days’ worth of operating costs by the end of fiscal 2020: North Dakota (150.6), Alaska (110.6), and West Virginia (104.3).
- Illinois (1.9 days) was the only state with less than one week’s worth of operating costs held in total balances in fiscal 2020, nearly all ending balances. Pennsylvania was the only state to finish the fiscal year with a negative total balance—spurred by a $2.7 billion budget deficit—which lawmakers had to resolve in the current budget cycle.
Why reserves matter
States use reserves and balances to manage budgetary uncertainty, including revenue forecasting errors, budget gaps during economic downturns, and other unforeseen emergencies, such as natural disasters. This financial cushion can soften the need for severe spending cuts or tax increases when states need to balance their budgets.
Because reserves and balances are vital to managing unexpected changes and maintaining fiscal health, their levels are tracked closely by bond rating agencies. For example, Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Connecticut’s credit rating in March 2021, citing the state’s buildup of reserve levels as part of its rationale.
There is no one-size-fits-all rule on when, how, and how much to save. States with a history of significant economic or revenue volatility may desire larger cushions. According to a report by The Pew Charitable Trusts, the optimal savings target of state rainy day funds depends on three factors: the defined purpose of funds, the volatility of a state’s tax revenue, and the level of coverage—similar to an insurance policy—that the state seeks to provide for its budget.
Reserves and balances represent funds available to states to fill budget gaps, although there may be varied levels of restriction on their use, such as under what fiscal or economic conditions they can be used. In addition, limits are often set on how much states may deposit into rainy day accounts in a given year when seeking to replenish their reserves.
General fund reserves and balances may not reflect a state’s complete fiscal cushion. States may have additional resources to soften downturns, such as dedicated reserves outside of their general funds or rainy day accounts. In addition, the scope of each state’s general fund expenditures can differ, so comparisons across states should be made with caution. For example, some states—such as Michigan—spend considerable amounts outside of their general fund, and Ohio is unusual because its general fund includes spending from federal Medicaid dollars. One way to standardize the size of reserves and balances is to calculate how many days a state could run solely on those funds, even though the scenario is highly unlikely.
—Analysis by Barb Rosewicz, Justin Theal, and Joe Fleming
Click here for a printable version of this analysis.
Data is reported by each state for its fiscal year, which ends June 30 in all but four states: New York (March 31), Texas (Aug. 31), and Alabama and Michigan (both Sept. 30).
Data for fiscal years 2000-20 are the final figures reported by state budget officials in fall surveys conducted by the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO). The latest fall survey provided “preliminary actual” figures for fiscal 2020 based on surveys returned between August and November 2020, which incorporated the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on states’ projections of their fiscal positions but were prior to the most recent two federal aid packages.
Historical data is incomplete for some states. Wisconsin has reported only post-fiscal 2006 rainy day funds to NASBO, and Arkansas began reporting its total balances in fiscal 2016. Four states created their rainy day funds since fiscal 2000: Arkansas (2017), Kansas (2016), Montana (2017), and Oregon (2007). Each state’s trend is shown from the first year it reported data.
Georgia did not yet report its rainy day fund total to NASBO for fiscal 2020, so Pew used the state’s fiscal 2020 rainy day fund balance from the FY 2022 Governor’s Budget Report based on guidance from the Georgia House Budget and Research Office. The state’s fiscal 2020 total balance was similarly updated based on guidance from the Georgia Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget on March 16, 2021.
Nevada reported that the state emptied its rainy day fund in fiscal 2021; however, this action was updated in Pew’s analysis to take place in fiscal 2020 based on information provided by the Governor’s Finance Office.
Massachusetts changed its general fund expenditure reporting practices, beginning in fiscal 2018, to exclude spending funded by federal reimbursements and increase comparability across states. Revised data for Massachusetts’ general fund spending for fiscal years 2005-17 was provided to Pew by the Massachusetts Executive Office for Administration and Finance on Feb. 13, 2019. Comparisons with years prior to fiscal 2005 should be made with caution.
Wyoming changed its rainy day fund reporting practices, beginning with fiscal 2015, to reflect its full rainy day fund balance for each fiscal year. Before 2015, the state reported a portion of its reserve holdings because it uses biennial budgeting. Comparisons with prior years should be made with caution.
See NASBO’s “The Fiscal Survey of the States” reports for additional notes.
Pew’s analysis is based on data from “The Fiscal Survey of the States,” which the National Association of State Budget Officers publishes each fall and spring. Data for fiscal years 2000-19 are from “State General Fund, Actual” tables published in fall reports. Data for fiscal 2020 is from the Fall 2020 report in tables “Fiscal 2020 State General Fund, Preliminary Actual,” “Rainy Day Fund Balances, Dollar Amount and Percentage of Expenditures, Fiscal 2011 to Fiscal 2021,” and “Total Balances, Dollar Amount and Percentage of Expenditures, Fiscal 2019 to Fiscal 2021,” downloaded Dec. 23, 2020.
Revised data was provided to Pew by the following states: Georgia’s total balance and rainy day fund balance for fiscal 2020 by the Georgia House Budget and Research Office on March 10, 2021, and the Georgia Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget on March 16, 2021; Massachusetts’ general fund spending for fiscal years 2005-17 by the Massachusetts Executive Office for Administration and Finance on Feb. 13, 2019; and Missouri’s rainy day fund, total balances, and ending balances for fiscal years 2000-10 by the Missouri Office of Administration on Jan. 31, 2020.
All data except where noted comes from “The Fiscal Survey of the States” reports, which are based on the National Association of State Budget Officers’ semiannual surveys of state budget officers.
For both total balances and rainy day funds, Pew calculated days’ worth of operating costs by dividing annual general fund expenditures by 365 to represent daily operating costs. It then divided the state’s reserves and balances by the daily operating costs. Pew also calculated rainy day reserves and total balances as a percentage of general fund spending, a standard metric that states use in setting caps on reserves or targeting reserve funding levels.
Except where noted, totals for all years in which states did not have funds or report balances are treated as zeroes for the calculation of both rainy day funds and total balance 50-state medians. If data is reported by the states in future surveys, the medians are updated to reflect the newly available data.
50-state median
FY 2020: 28.5 days
Rainy day funds equaled 7.8% of spending.
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