Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis
Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis, an interactive resource from The Pew Charitable Trusts, allows you to sort and analyze data on key fiscal, economic, and demographic trends in the 50 states and understand their impact on states’ fiscal health. Read the key findings below.
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Revenue
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Spending
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Economy and People
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Long-Term costs
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Fiscal policy
Insights From Fiscal 50’s Key Measures of State Fiscal Health
November 15, 2021
States’ Fiscal Prospects Brighten as Recovery Progresses
After an initial jolt to state finances, smaller-than-expected revenue shortfalls and unprecedented federal aid have lifted states’ outlooks. Many economists had predicted a dark chapter for state budgets when the coronavirus pandemic triggered a historic contraction in the U.S. economy in early 2020, abruptly ending the longest U.S. economic expansion on record. But the recession proved to be the shortest on record and less dire than expected for state budgets, though lingering economic effects and threats from COVID-19 have persisted.
A hallmark of the 2020 recession has been its divergent effect on state tax revenue. By the end of the first quarter of 2021, tax collections in the majority of states had surpassed pre-pandemic levels after adjusting for inflation. But receipts were still lagging nationwide and in 20 states—by double-digit percentages in six of them.
Meanwhile, robust federal aid has played a central role in supporting the economy and state finances. Federal assistance for taxpayers, businesses, and state and local governments—along with higher-than-expected tax collections—helped alleviate stress on budgets and has allowed the majority of states to avoid tapping their rainy day funds. In fact, after dipping briefly in fiscal year 2020, the total amount set aside in rainy day funds nationwide was expected to grow to a new high at the end of fiscal 2021. Still, four states had less than a week’s worth of operating costs set aside as the delta variant’s emergence fueled new unease about the recovery’s trajectory.
Federal aid has also temporarily buttressed state personal income, a measure of residents’ economic well-being. As of the second quarter of 2021, the sum of residents’ income from all sources was higher in every state than before the start of the pandemic. The growth in personal income occurred despite a crushing wave of job losses, particularly among lower-wage workers, battering a job market that had only recently recovered to pre-Great Recession levels. The percentage of adults in their prime working years who held jobs has fallen since the start of the pandemic in every state.
- Tax revenue. Tax revenue in a majority of states had rallied to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the first quarter of 2021, but total collections nationwide and those in 20 states had yet to fully recover, after adjusting for inflation. Preliminary estimates showed that tax revenue continued to grow widely in ensuing months, reflecting states’ brightening fiscal outlooks as the recession’s impacts waned—though threats from COVID-19 persisted.
- Reserves and balances. After a one-year dip, states’ combined fiscal cushion—counting rainy day funds and leftover budget dollars—was expected to spring back and exceed pre-pandemic highs by the start of fiscal 2022, which began in July in most states. A faster-than-anticipated revenue recovery from the pandemic’s early fallout has allowed many states to bolster their financial reserves or mitigate declines.
- State personal income. All but one state recorded drops in total personal income in the second quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier, when Americans received the first infusion of temporary pandemic relief payments. But personal income exceeded pre-pandemic levels in all states, after accounting for inflation, as earnings growth and still-elevated levels of government assistance continued to bolster states’ economies. Growth in the sum of Americans’ personal income since the end of 2019 was the strongest in South Dakota and a group of Western states.
- Employment-to-population ratio. The pandemic continued to inflict damage on the economy as it recovered from historic job losses last year and in the first half of 2021. Employment rates for adults of prime working age were lower on average in every state over the 12 months ending in June 2021 when compared with the year before the COVID-19 recession. The severity of losses varied widely, however, ranging from steep drops in states largely reliant on leisure and hospitality jobs to only slight declines in Great Plains states.
Long-running challenges complicate recovery
The coronavirus pandemic intensified two challenges already facing states: It put pressure on Medicaid, the health care program that is most states’ second-biggest budget expense, and introduced a novel source of volatility that triggered unexpected swings in tax revenue, upsetting policymakers’ plans for balanced budgets.
Meanwhile, states continued to face fiscal pressures from inherited shortfalls in funding for public employees’ pension and retiree health care benefits; recurring deficits between annual state revenue and expenses; and weak population growth, which can diminish economic prospects and revenue collections.
One lifeline for states continued to be federal dollars, which made up roughly one-third of all state revenue before the latest economic shock led to a boost in federal aid to states.
- State Medicaid spending. Medicaid consumed a greater portion of states’ own money in nearly every state between fiscal 2000 and 2017. States’ increases varied widely, however, from less than 1 cent to nearly 12 cents more per dollar of state-generated revenue, exerting different degrees of budget pressure. Medicaid’s claim on state revenue surged in the wake of the Great Recession, after temporary federal economic stimulus dollars expired but before the federally funded expansion of Medicaid eligibility began, and has remained stable since. Medicaid is most state governments’ second-biggest expense, after K-12 education.
- Tax revenue volatility. All states experience swings in their tax revenue from year to year, but some fluctuate more than others, leading to surprise shortfalls or windfalls that can make it hard for policymakers to manage budgets. During the 20 years ending in fiscal 2020, Alaska recorded the greatest volatility and South Dakota the least, after removing the effects of state tax policy changes. Taxes on oil and mineral extraction and corporate income were consistently more volatile than other major tax streams. In early 2020, the coronavirus pandemic introduced another dose of volatility as tax revenues took their steepest plunge during a single quarter in at least 25 years.
- Debt and unfunded retirement costs. Unfunded pension benefits were the largest, most prominent, and fastest-growing of a selection of future costs facing states as of 2013. States reported $968 billion in unfunded pension costs—the equivalent of 6.9 percent of 50-state personal income, as well as $587 billion in unfunded retiree health care liabilities (4.2 percent of personal income) and $518 billion in outstanding debt (3.7 percent). If not properly managed, these costs can limit future budget flexibility and raise borrowing costs.
- Fiscal balance. Most states amassed sufficient revenue between fiscal years 2005 and 2019 to cover all their expenses, despite the Great Recession’s blow to state finances. But in eight states, revenue collected from taxes, federal funds, and other sources fell short, pushing off to future taxpayers some past costs for operating government and providing services. States can withstand periodic deficits without endangering their fiscal health over the long run. But chronic shortfalls are one indication of a more serious, unsustainable structural deficit in which revenue will continue to fall short of spending absent policy changes.
- Population change. Population growth slowed in most states over the past decade, with Illinois, Mississippi, and West Virginia losing residents. The deceleration was the most pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest, while the fastest-growing states were in the South and West. Nationally, population growth between 2010 and 2020 slowed to a rate not seen since the Great Depression. Population trends matter to both state government finances and economic growth.
- Federal share of state revenue. The federal government is the second-largest source of state revenue—accounting for 31.4% of the total in fiscal 2019—a share that is expected to grow in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to an influx of federal aid. But states’ reliance on federal funds varies widely, ranging from 20.1% of revenue in Hawaii to 44.8% in Louisiana. The share of states’ revenue made up by federal dollars in fiscal 2019 was among the largest on record.
Pew’s Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis is an interactive tool that allows you to sort and analyze data on key fiscal, economic, and demographic trends in the 50 states and understand their impact on states’ fiscal health. With this tool, you can:
- Compare states over time, with each other, or with national trends.
- Gain insights into each state’s long-term financial well-being.
- Read analysis from Pew experts.
The primary objective of Fiscal 50 is to provide insights into states’ long-term fiscal health on a range of metrics. This tool is not meant to be a comprehensive assessment of a state’s finances or a replica of state budget statistics that are published by a variety of experts. Rather, Fiscal 50 selectively presents data and analyses that help states look beyond their current budgets, size up their progress over time, consider different ways to measure performance, and easily compare their outcomes with neighbors or peers that have similar resources and challenges.
This resource will be updated regularly with more analysis, fresh data, and additional indicators.
How are the indicators chosen?
Fiscal 50 identifies five core areas that are essential to states’ fiscal health: revenue, spending, economy and people, long-term costs, and fiscal policy. Indicators for each of these are selected with states’ long-term financial well-being in mind. Pew solicited advice from outside fiscal experts in choosing them.
Where do the data come from?
Fiscal 50 builds on data from U.S. government agencies, the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, the National Association of State Budget Officers, the National Governors Association, and Pew’s own research. Differences can be expected between certain fiscal data used in this analysis and data compiled and used by states for budgeting purposes. Statistics featured in Fiscal 50 are the best available for drawing fair comparisons across states.
Reserves and Balances
States’ Total Rainy Day Funds Fall for First Time Since Great Recession
The total amount set aside in state rainy day funds fell for the first time since the Great Recession as lawmakers in fiscal year 2020 filled budget gaps driven by the pandemic’s early fiscal and economic fallout. Nearly a third of states reported declines in the total dollar amounts of their savings—the most since 2010. Still, remaining balances hovered near record highs. Read more below.
Days Each State Could Run on Only Rainy Day Funds, FY 2000-20
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50-state median |
Note: The text of this webpage was updated on May 21, 2021 to clarify that Maine’s FY 2020 rainy day fund withdrawal was unrelated to the pandemic.
In the face of steep tax revenue shortfalls and increased spending demands, 15 states tapped a total of $12.4 billion from their rainy day funds in the first budget year disrupted by COVID-19, according to data reported by the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO). Some withdrew only a small share of their savings, but others tapped substantial amounts to plug budget holes that suddenly emerged.
Despite the start of a recession, rainy day funds in the rest of states were unchanged or even grew somewhat in the fiscal year that ended for most states in June 2020. Overall, rainy day funds nationwide were left with $71.6 billion—second only to the pre-pandemic record-setting total of $78.7 billion—to deal with budget shortfalls or other emergencies as the pandemic continued into this fiscal year.
A 50-state comparison, though, shows wide variation in how far each state’s rainy day funds could stretch—from enough to run government operations for almost a year in Wyoming to zero savings in Illinois, Nevada, and New Jersey. The median amount at the start of this fiscal year could cover 28.5 days’ worth of general fund spending, or 7.8%, meaning at least half of states had that much or more saved and half had less.
It is still unclear how much states may draw on their reserves to balance budgets this fiscal year, which ends June 30 in 46 states. Eleven states expected their rainy day fund totals to fall by the close of fiscal 2021, according to NASBO data. But fiscal and economic outlooks have improved considerably since most states’ budget plans were passed last year.
The threat of big year-end budget gaps lessened as the national economy began bouncing back and state tax revenue began recovering. As of February 2021, tax collections in 29 states had grown enough to offset initial losses since the start of the pandemic, though in at least 18 states—often those heavily reliant on tourism or energy production—receipts still were running behind pre-pandemic levels. Although budgets also were stressed by billions of dollars of expenses to fight COVID-19 and repair economic damage, states were poised to receive an unprecedented amount of federal aid that could be used to fill gaps and also fund economic relief and infrastructure projects. A few states that recently withdrew from their rainy day funds were already considering making sizeable deposits in fiscal 2022, including California, Michigan, and Oklahoma.
States were cautious early on about using their rainy day accounts, also known as budget stabilization funds, amid significant uncertainty over how long the public health and economic crises might last and how much federal aid might be forthcoming. Instead of turning first to rainy day funds, many managed fiscal 2020 budget gaps through a combination of spending cuts, federal aid, and a historically high cache of leftover general fund budget dollars, known as ending balances, that had built up over two years of widespread surpluses.
Before the pandemic hit, the combination of states’ ending balances and rainy day funds—what is known as total balances—amounted to a record $121.6 billion, the largest fiscal cushion on record in at least the past 20 years. After dealing with the pandemic’s sudden blows to public health, the economy, and tax collections in the final four months of fiscal 2020, states still held $105.6 billion in total balances heading into the current fiscal year, enough cash reserves to cover a median of 43.5 days’ worth—or 11.9%—of operating costs.
Rainy day funds
Overall, states learned a lesson from the 2007-09 downturn, when tax revenue losses far outstripped savings, and they pumped up the total amount set aside in rainy day funds almost every year over the past decade. When the pandemic hit, they had enough money to cover 28.9 days’ worth of operating costs at the end of fiscal 2019 compared with just 17.3 days in fiscal 2007, on the brink of the Great Recession.
However, some states had far more set aside than others to deal with potential revenue downturns, natural disasters, or other emergencies, such as COVID-19. At least 36 states by the start of fiscal 2020 had saved enough to cover a greater share of government operating costs than in the last full budget year before the previous recession.
Rainy day fund highlights
In fiscal 2020, the first budget year scarred by the pandemic:
- Two states—New Jersey and Nevada—drained their savings, a sharp reversal after each had made recent progress replenishing rainy day funds they had emptied during the previous downturn. New Jersey had just made its first deposit in a decade, and Nevada had surpassed its pre-Great Recession savings level for the first time. The governor of Nevada has proposed a plan to begin refilling its rainy day fund, and New Jersey’s balance is projected to hit $1.4 billion by the end of the current fiscal year.
- The 13 other states that tapped their rainy day funds were: Alaska, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Texas. Declines ranged from 4% of savings in Texas and Georgia to 71% in Oklahoma and 84% in Hawaii. California’s $7.2 billion decline was the largest by dollar amount and accounted for 31% of its savings; however, its governor has proposed a budget that would restore much of these funds in the upcoming budget year. Maine’s withdrawal was unrelated to the pandemic, and the governor’s proposed budget for fiscal 2022 would bolster the fund.
- Connecticut posted the largest gain among 26 states in which rainy day fund savings grew as a share of operating costs, despite the pandemic-induced economic downturn. A $940 million increase—driven by a deposit rule tied to revenue volatility—boosted its savings from 40.4 days’ worth of operating costs in fiscal 2019 to 58.6 days in fiscal 2020.
- Wyoming boasted the nation’s largest rainy day reserves as a share of operating costs in fiscal 2020 (353.8 days). North Dakota (111 days) and Alaska (110.6) were the only states besides Wyoming with more than 100 days’ worth of operating costs stowed away. Alaska, though, has made withdrawals for seven years in a row and was down to one-eighth what it once had as a share of spending.
- Six states had less than a week’s worth of operating costs in reserve in fiscal 2020: Kansas (four days), Pennsylvania (3.6), Hawaii (2.7), and Illinois (less than one-tenth of a day), plus Nevada and New Jersey, each with zero. Kansas, though, made its first deposit of $82 million since creating its rainy day fund in 2016.
- The 11 states that earlier this fiscal year had expected declines in their rainy day funds were: Alaska, California, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas, Vermont, and Wyoming. In addition, Delaware authorized a withdrawal from a new fund that functions as savings but is not reflected in NASBO’s data. States may find less need to tap their savings by the close of fiscal 2021 because both economic and budget conditions have improved considerably.
Total balances
Unlike the Great Recession, rainy day funds made up the bulk of states’ reserves in the year before the pandemic, accounting for 65 cents of every dollar in total balances at the end of fiscal 2019, compared with 45 cents just before the 2007-09 downturn. The contrast highlights the more prominent role of rainy day funds today in managing state fiscal uncertainty. Ending balances, which make up the remainder of total balances, were historically high before both recessions.
At the end of the first budget year of the pandemic, ending balances were down more than rainy day funds. In net dollars, which account for the fact that totals fell in some states while rising in others, ending balances fell by nearly $9 billion to $34 billion in fiscal 2020, while rainy day funds declined by $7 billion to $71.6 billion.
At the close of fiscal 2020, total balances in 31 states could cover fewer days’ worth of general fund spending than a year earlier but 18 states could cover more, with one state unchanged.
Ending balances fluctuate from year to year, so policymakers cannot count on them as cushions against future budget uncertainty to the degree that they can with rainy day funds, which are saved until policymakers decide to draw them down.
Total balance highlights
In fiscal 2020, which for most states included the first five months of the new pandemic-induced recession:
- Of the 31 states whose fiscal cushion shrank from a year earlier, total balances in seven declined by more than 50% in terms of days’ worth of government spending: New Hampshire, Oregon, Illinois, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Pennsylvania.
- The highest-ranked state for total balances was the same as for rainy day funds: Wyoming (353.8 days). Three other states held more than 100 days’ worth of operating costs by the end of fiscal 2020: North Dakota (150.6), Alaska (110.6), and West Virginia (104.3).
- Illinois (1.9 days) was the only state with less than one week’s worth of operating costs held in total balances in fiscal 2020, nearly all ending balances. Pennsylvania was the only state to finish the fiscal year with a negative total balance—spurred by a $2.7 billion budget deficit—which lawmakers had to resolve in the current budget cycle.
Why reserves matter
States use reserves and balances to manage budgetary uncertainty, including revenue forecasting errors, budget gaps during economic downturns, and other unforeseen emergencies, such as natural disasters. This financial cushion can soften the need for severe spending cuts or tax increases when states need to balance their budgets.
Because reserves and balances are vital to managing unexpected changes and maintaining fiscal health, their levels are tracked closely by bond rating agencies. For example, Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Connecticut’s credit rating in March 2021, citing the state’s buildup of reserve levels as part of its rationale.
There is no one-size-fits-all rule on when, how, and how much to save. States with a history of significant economic or revenue volatility may desire larger cushions. According to a report by The Pew Charitable Trusts, the optimal savings target of state rainy day funds depends on three factors: the defined purpose of funds, the volatility of a state’s tax revenue, and the level of coverage—similar to an insurance policy—that the state seeks to provide for its budget.
Reserves and balances represent funds available to states to fill budget gaps, although there may be varied levels of restriction on their use, such as under what fiscal or economic conditions they can be used. In addition, limits are often set on how much states may deposit into rainy day accounts in a given year when seeking to replenish their reserves.
General fund reserves and balances may not reflect a state’s complete fiscal cushion. States may have additional resources to soften downturns, such as dedicated reserves outside of their general funds or rainy day accounts. In addition, the scope of each state’s general fund expenditures can differ, so comparisons across states should be made with caution. For example, some states—such as Michigan—spend considerable amounts outside of their general fund, and Ohio is unusual because its general fund includes spending from federal Medicaid dollars. One way to standardize the size of reserves and balances is to calculate how many days a state could run solely on those funds, even though the scenario is highly unlikely.
—Analysis by Barb Rosewicz, Justin Theal, and Joe Fleming
Click here for a printable version of this analysis.
Data is reported by each state for its fiscal year, which ends June 30 in all but four states: New York (March 31), Texas (Aug. 31), and Alabama and Michigan (both Sept. 30).
Data for fiscal years 2000-20 are the final figures reported by state budget officials in fall surveys conducted by the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO). The latest fall survey provided “preliminary actual” figures for fiscal 2020 based on surveys returned between August and November 2020, which incorporated the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on states’ projections of their fiscal positions but were prior to the most recent two federal aid packages.
Historical data is incomplete for some states. Wisconsin has reported only post-fiscal 2006 rainy day funds to NASBO, and Arkansas began reporting its total balances in fiscal 2016. Four states created their rainy day funds since fiscal 2000: Arkansas (2017), Kansas (2016), Montana (2017), and Oregon (2007). Each state’s trend is shown from the first year it reported data.
Georgia did not yet report its rainy day fund total to NASBO for fiscal 2020, so Pew used the state’s fiscal 2020 rainy day fund balance from the FY 2022 Governor’s Budget Report based on guidance from the Georgia House Budget and Research Office. The state’s fiscal 2020 total balance was similarly updated based on guidance from the Georgia Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget on March 16, 2021.
Nevada reported that the state emptied its rainy day fund in fiscal 2021; however, this action was updated in Pew’s analysis to take place in fiscal 2020 based on information provided by the Governor’s Finance Office.
Massachusetts changed its general fund expenditure reporting practices, beginning in fiscal 2018, to exclude spending funded by federal reimbursements and increase comparability across states. Revised data for Massachusetts’ general fund spending for fiscal years 2005-17 was provided to Pew by the Massachusetts Executive Office for Administration and Finance on Feb. 13, 2019. Comparisons with years prior to fiscal 2005 should be made with caution.
Wyoming changed its rainy day fund reporting practices, beginning with fiscal 2015, to reflect its full rainy day fund balance for each fiscal year. Before 2015, the state reported a portion of its reserve holdings because it uses biennial budgeting. Comparisons with prior years should be made with caution.
See NASBO’s “The Fiscal Survey of the States” reports for additional notes.
Pew’s analysis is based on data from “The Fiscal Survey of the States,” which the National Association of State Budget Officers publishes each fall and spring. Data for fiscal years 2000-19 are from “State General Fund, Actual” tables published in fall reports. Data for fiscal 2020 is from the Fall 2020 report in tables “Fiscal 2020 State General Fund, Preliminary Actual,” “Rainy Day Fund Balances, Dollar Amount and Percentage of Expenditures, Fiscal 2011 to Fiscal 2021,” and “Total Balances, Dollar Amount and Percentage of Expenditures, Fiscal 2019 to Fiscal 2021,” downloaded Dec. 23, 2020.
Revised data was provided to Pew by the following states: Georgia’s total balance and rainy day fund balance for fiscal 2020 by the Georgia House Budget and Research Office on March 10, 2021, and the Georgia Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget on March 16, 2021; Massachusetts’ general fund spending for fiscal years 2005-17 by the Massachusetts Executive Office for Administration and Finance on Feb. 13, 2019; and Missouri’s rainy day fund, total balances, and ending balances for fiscal years 2000-10 by the Missouri Office of Administration on Jan. 31, 2020.
All data except where noted comes from “The Fiscal Survey of the States” reports, which are based on the National Association of State Budget Officers’ semiannual surveys of state budget officers.
For both total balances and rainy day funds, Pew calculated days’ worth of operating costs by dividing annual general fund expenditures by 365 to represent daily operating costs. It then divided the state’s reserves and balances by the daily operating costs. Pew also calculated rainy day reserves and total balances as a percentage of general fund spending, a standard metric that states use in setting caps on reserves or targeting reserve funding levels.
Except where noted, totals for all years in which states did not have funds or report balances are treated as zeroes for the calculation of both rainy day funds and total balance 50-state medians. If data is reported by the states in future surveys, the medians are updated to reflect the newly available data.
50-state median
FY 2020: 28.5 days
Rainy day funds equaled 7.8% of spending.
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