Fiscal Management Tools

How can lawmakers manage budget uncertainty while still meeting residents' needs? Our Kil Huh explains what budget stress testing is and how it works—and how states can use it in the months ahead.

Budget stress tests help states estimate the potential financial shortfalls that could result from adverse events—a dramatic economic downturn, for example, or an outbreak of illness, such as the one caused by the novel coronavirus. Policymakers can use this data to plan ahead, helping to avert or limit a fiscal emergency and keep long-term priorities on track.

In a memo sent Aug. 20, 2021, to Colorado’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting, experts from The Pew Charitable Trusts discuss how two fiscal management tools—long-term budget projections and contingency plans—help states prepare for fiscal challenges.

State governments generally adopt budgets that lawmakers believe are balanced, with sufficient revenue to pay for expenses. But because states typically enact their budgets before the start of a fiscal year, policymakers must rely on forecasts of how much revenue the state will collect and how much it will spend.