Notes and Souces - Ten Fiscal Charts

Source Organization: Pew Charitable Trusts


10/11/2011 - Notes to Chart 1
Actual publicly-held federal debt as of September 30, 2011 was $10.1 billion, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Final fiscal year 2011 spending and revenue figures are expected in November 2011.

Spending Hikes
"Interest Due to Spending Hikes" includes all debt changes caused by changes in interest costs as classified by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which resulted from changes in legislative outlays. It excludes growth in net interest due to legislative revenues as well as economic or technical revisions.

"Other Non-Defense Spending" shows growth in non-defense discretionary and mandatory spending unaccounted for by specific policies.

"Other Defense Spending" shows growth in defense discretionary spending unaccounted for by specific policies.
 
"2010 Tax Act" shows CBO's 2011 projected outlay costs of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 (P.L. 111-312).

"Recovery Act" shows CBO's 2009 projected outlay costs of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA).

"TARP" shows CBO's 2011 projected costs of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

“Medicare Part D" shows CBO's 2003 projected costs of the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003 (P.L. 108-173).

"Operations in Iraq & Afghanistan" shows CBO's 2011 estimate of the costs of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Due to data limitations, this category illustrates budget authority, not outlays.

"2001/2003 Tax Cuts" shows CBO's 2001 and 2003 projected outlay costs of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003.

Tax Cuts
"Interest Due to Tax Cuts" includes all debt changes caused by changes in interest costs as classified by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which resulted from changes in legislative revenues. It excludes growth in net interest due to legislative outlays as well as economic or technical revisions.

"Other Tax Cuts" shows debt growth caused by legislative decreases in revenue and unaccounted for by specific policies.

"2010 Tax Act" shows CBO's 2011 projected revenue costs of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 (P.L. 111-312).

"Recovery Act" shows CBO's 2009 projected revenue costs of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA).

"2001/2003 Tax Cuts" shows CBO's 2001 and 2003 projected revenue costs of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003.

Technical, Economic, & Other
"Technical & Economic, Revenue Adjustments" include those debt changes categorized as "technical" or "economic" by CBO and caused by changes in revenue projections.

"Technical & Economic, All Other Adjustments" include all debt changes categorized as "technical" or "economic" by CBO excluding changes caused by changes in revenue.

"Other Means of Financing" includes changes to publicly-held federal debt caused by loan guarantees, asset sales, and other off-budget changes in the need for the federal government to borrow.

Sources
Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2011, p. 62.
For all other sources, see Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative, The Great Debt Shift, May 2011, Appendix Table 2.

Notes to Chart 2
"TARP" shows CBO's 2011 projected costs of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

"Technical & Economic (All Other)" include all debt changes categorized as "technical" or "economic" by CBO excluding changes caused by changes in revenue.

“Medicare Part D" shows CBO's 2003 projected costs of the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003 (P.L. 108-173).

"2010 Tax Act" shows CBO's 2011 projected total costs of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 (P.L. 111-312).

"Other Means of Financing" includes changes to publicly-held federal debt caused by loan guarantees, asset sales, and other off-budget changes in the need for the federal government to borrow.

"Other Defense Spending" shows growth in defense discretionary spending unaccounted for by specific policies.

"Other Tax Cuts" shows debt growth caused by legislative decreases in revenue and unaccounted for by specific policies.

"Recovery Act" shows CBO's 2009 projected total costs of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA).

"Operations in Iraq & Afghanistan" shows CBO's 2011 estimate of the costs of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Due to data limitations, this category illustrates budget authority, not outlays.

"Other Non-Defense Spending" shows growth in non-defense discretionary and mandatory spending unaccounted for by specific policies.

"Interest Due to New Legislation" includes all debt changes caused by changes in interest costs classified as “legislative” by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). It excludes growth in net interest due to economic or technical revisions.

“2001/2003 Tax Cuts" shows CBO's 2001 and 2003 projected total costs of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003.

"Technical & Economic (Revenue)" includes those debt changes categorized as "technical" or "economic" by CBO and caused by changes in revenue projections.

Sources
Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2011, p. 62.
For all other sources, see Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative, The Great Debt Shift, May 2011, Appendix Table 2.

Notes to Chart 3
Unemployment insurance spending comprises total outlays in federal budget function 603. Long-term unemployment figures are fiscal year annual averages of the monthly 52-week-or-longer series from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Sources
Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2011.

Office of Management and Budget, Public Budget Database Fiscal Year 2011 (Outlays). Obtained at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Supplemental/

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Series I.D. LNU03008696.

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Notes to Chart 4
* Tax expenditures already show up in the budget in the form of lower revenues. Treating them as spending programs instead would raise outlays and revenues by an equal amount, not affecting the size of the budget deficit.

All spending figures are based on outlays. Final fiscal year 2011 spending and revenue figures from the U.S. Department of the Treasury are expected later in 2011.

Sources
Allison Rogers and Eric Toder, Trends in Tax Expenditures: 1985-2016, Tax Policy Center, September 2011. Obtained at http://taxpolicycenter.org/publications/url.cfm?ID=412404

Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2011.

Historical U.S. Treasury data.

Notes to Chart 5
“Current Law Baseline” assumes the Congressional Budget Office’s August 2011 current law baseline. “Current Policy Baseline” modifies CBO August 2011 current law baseline to reflect the cost of five policy changes: 1) the permanent extension of the December 2010 tax law for all filers; 2) indexing the 2011 parameters of the AMT for inflation; 3) overriding scheduled cuts in Medicare Part B physician reimbursements; 4) reducing overseas troop levels to 45,000 by 2015; and 5) reauthorizing certain expiring income tax provisions (commonly called the “extenders”).

Sources
Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2011.

Notes to Chart 6
“Discretionary spending” refers to budget authority. All projections are based on current law save for assumptions about discretionary spending growth. No assumed savings from Phase 2 of the BCA (resulting from the Joint Select Committee or the automatic sequester) are incorporated.

Notes to Chart 7
Spending remedies apply to outlays. “Current Law Baseline” assumes the Congressional Budget Office’s August 2011 current law baseline. “Current Policy Baseline” modifies CBO’s August 2011 current law baseline to reflect the cost of five policy changes: 1) the permanent extension of the December 2010 tax law for all filers; 2) indexing the 2011 parameters of the AMT for inflation; 3) overriding scheduled cuts in Medicare Part B physician reimbursements; 4) reducing overseas troop levels to 45,000 by 2015; and 5) reauthorizing certain expiring income tax provisions (commonly called the “extenders”). For this exercise, Pew removed the $1.2 trillion of Joint Select Committee deficit reduction CBO assumed in its current law baseline and replaced it with different scenarios for reaching $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction by 2021.

Notes to Chart 8
Illustrated cuts are to outlays. Assumes no deficit reduction recommendations from the Joint Select Committee become law. The total amount of the sequester would be reduced by the savings of any deficit reduction measures recommended by the Joint Select Committee that become law by January 15, 2012.

Sources
Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Impact of Automatic Budget Enforcement Procedures Specified in the Budget Control Act, September 2011. Obtained at http://cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=12414

Notes to Chart 9
These estimates do not incorporate different economic scenarios, nor do they project the extent of the measures the Treasury may take once the statutory debt limit is reached. They incorporate assumptions about month-to-month variations in revenues, outlays, and issuance of debt based on historical data since fiscal year 2009.

The earliest estimate (February 2013) assumes 1) overriding of planned Medicare Part B physician reimbursement cuts; 2) extension of December 2010 tax law for all filers; 3) the “extenders” tax provisions are reauthorized; 4) overseas troop reductions proceed as announced by the president; and, 5) repeal of the deficit control provisions of the BCA, including the discretionary spending caps and the automatic sequester.

The latest estimate (June 2014) assumes 1) Medicare Part B physician reimbursements are cut as scheduled or offset; 2) the December 2010 tax law fully expires as scheduled; 3) the “extenders” tax provisions all expire as scheduled; 4) overseas troop reductions proceed as announced by the president; and 5) the BCA is fully enforced and $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction becomes law.

“Current Policy Range” assumes Pew’s current policy baseline and only varies the amount of savings resulting from the Joint Select Committee. Pew’s current policy baseline assumes 1) overriding of planned Medicare Part B physician reimbursement cuts; 2) extension of December 2010 tax law for all filers; 3) “extenders” tax provisions are reauthorized; 4) overseas troop reductions proceed as announced by the president; and, 5) the BCA is fully enforced and either the sequester is triggered (February 2013 estimate) or $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction becomes law (August 2013 estimate).

Pew assumed the $1.5 trillion in Joint Committee deficit reduction takes effect beginning in January 2013, and the non-interest portion is spread out evenly over fiscal years 2013 to 2021, about $140 billion each year.

Sources
Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2011.

Historical U.S. Treasury data.

Notes to Chart 10
These estimates do not incorporate different economic scenarios, nor do they project the extent of the measures the Treasury may take once the statutory debt limit is reached. They incorporate assumptions about month-to-month variations in revenues, outlays, and issuance of debt based on historical data since fiscal year 2009.

The October 2012 estimate assumes 1) enactment of S. 1660, 2) the permanent extension of the December 2010 tax law for everyone, 3) the reauthorization of the “extenders”, 4) the repeal of planned cuts to Medicare physician reimbursements, 5) overseas troop withdrawals proceed as planned, and 6) the full repeal of the BCA, including the discretionary caps and the automatic sequester. The debt ceiling rises under this scenario by $1.2 trillion.

Under Pew’s current policy baseline, enactment of S. 1660 would cause the U.S. to reach the debt limit between November 2012 and April 2013, depending on the success and timing of the Joint Select Committee’s recommendations. Pew’s current policy baseline assumes 1) the permanent extension of the December 2010 tax law for everyone, 2) the reauthorization of the “extenders”,  3) the repeal of planned cuts to Medicare physician reimbursements, 4) overseas troop withdrawals proceed as planned, and 5) the enforcement of the BCA discretionary caps. The November 2012 estimate assumes no recommendations from the Joint Select Committee become law (or that their proposals have no effect before November 2012) and the debt ceiling is raised by $1.2 trillion. The April 2013 estimate assumes Joint Select Committee recommendations totaling $1.5 trillion become law and take effect beginning January 2012, raising the debt limit by $1.5 trillion.

The August 2013 estimate assumes 1) enactment of S. 1660, 2) Congress allows the December 2010 tax law to expire, 3) the “extenders”  expire, 4) scheduled Medicare Part B cuts to physicians occur, 5) overseas troops are reduced, 6) the discretionary caps under Phase 1 of the BCA are enforced, and 7) an additional $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction between 2012 and 2021 becomes law, raising the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion.

Sources
Congressional Budget Office, “Cost Estimate: S. 1549, American Jobs Act of 2011”, October 7, 2011.

Congressional Budget Office, Letter to the Hon. Harry Reid, October 7, 2011 (Score of S. 1660).

Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2011.

Office of Management and Budget, Living Within Our Means and Investing in the Future: The President’s Plan for Economic Growth and Deficit Reduction, September 2011.

Historical U.S. Treasury data.


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