07/10/2008 - The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall - perhaps much higher than in previous elections - as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start of the campaign, Democrats enjoy a substantial engagement advantage over Republicans that may significantly alter the composition of the November electorate.
Third, while there has been considerable debate about whether Hillary Clinton's supporters will rally behind Barack Obama in the fall, it is clear that both candidates face formidable challenges in consolidating their bases. John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, has an enthusiasm problem. McCain engenders less strong support than does Obama and has much weaker support than George W. Bush did at this stage in his presidential campaigns.
Read the complete findings Likely Rise In Voter Turnout Bodes Well For Democrats on the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Web site.